Very fast delivery increases return rates

Same-day and next-day delivery are treated as competitive advantages. They are - but they come with a hidden cost. Analysis of nearly 1.8 million transactions found that the faster an order arrived relative to expectations, the more likely it was to be returned.

The anticipation gap

When a shopper orders something expecting a 5-day wait, they mentally prepare. They imagine using the product, justify the purchase, and build commitment over time. When the parcel arrives the next morning, that anticipation gap closes before the mental work is done. Buyer's remorse fills the space.

The study found every day a delivery arrived ahead of schedule correlated with a 1.2% increase in return likelihood. The effect was sharpest among new customers who had less brand familiarity to offset doubt.

The counterintuitive implication

Slightly underpromising on delivery windows - and then meeting or beating them - may reduce returns more than always maximising speed. "Arrives in 3-5 days" with a 3-day delivery creates positive surprise. "Arrives tomorrow" with same-day delivery gives shoppers nothing to commit to.

Shopify implementation

• Set delivery estimates conservatively in checkout and order confirmation messaging
• Use post-purchase email sequences to keep customers engaged during the wait - reinforce the purchase decision before the parcel arrives
• Monitor return rates by delivery speed cohort using your order management or returns platform

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Research: Masuch, S., Landwehr, J.R., Flath, C.M. & Thiesse, F. (2024). "The faster, the better? The impact of short delivery times on product returns in online retailing." Journal of Retailing, 100(3), 475-485.